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Classic Formula
Track Record
Click
here for a list of all buy & sell signals generated since January 1, 1995.
Market
timing is one of the more controversial aspects of investing. Market timers only
invest long (buy) when they think the market, or a particular segment of the
market, is in an uptrend. Market timing signals based on market indices can be
used to trade index options, funds or other products designed to emulate
particular indices, or to time the purchase and sale of individual stock
appropriate to a particular index.
This
is a chart of the S&P 500 Index signals generated by our
Classic Formula. This system uses a combination of technical indicators to trigger buy
(green arrows) and sell (red boxes) signals.

The
results are hardly ideal. Even though the system caught most of the major moves,
there were periods where it generated repetitive buy and sell signals without
making any money (whipsaws), even though the S&P went up.
You
can look at timing signals the same way you view fire insurance. Most of the
time you pay for insurance without getting anything back. But if your house
catches fire, the insurance is a lifesaver. Same thing with market timing. Those
whipsaws cost you money. But if the market tanks, the system gets you out in
time to fight another day.
If
you’re using the market timing signals for stocks, you should use an index
appropriate to your stocks. Here are the four indices we cover and the
corresponding stocks.
|
Index |
Apply
Signal to: |
|
Dow
Jones 30 |
Blue-chips |
|
S&P
500 |
Major
growth companies such as Proctor & Gamble, Citigroup,
Target, General
Electric, etc. |
|
NASDAQ |
Mid- & large-cap
tech, mid-cap growth |
|
Russell
2000 |
Small-caps
and momentum stocks |
Experts
tell us you cannot time the market, and those who try are doomed to miss some of
the strongest days before they realize the market is in an uptrend. It’s hard
to argue with their logic in a bull market. If you know the market is going to
keep going up, your best strategy is to pour more money in on the dips.
But
what if the market drops for an extended period of time. Should we just sit
there and watch our capital dwindle while the market keeps falling. Wouldn’t
it make sense to get out and wait for the market to strengthen before we get
back in, even if we don’t catch the absolute bottom.
Our
timing system looks only at information contained within the charts. It does not
take into account general economic conditions, interest rates, etc. It will not
predict market turns caused by unexpected world events such as terrorist
attacks, government upheavals, etc. We make no promises that following these signals will
be more profitable than a simple buy and hold strategy.
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